Company

The notebook.

How we research props, how the product works, and what the data taught us. No picks — ever.

Research method · 6 min

Why the opponent matters more than the player

Everyone checks form. Almost nobody checks what the other club gives up — and it's the single most predictive input we have.

Research method · 4 min

Sample size: the number next to the number

70% off 20 games means something. 70% off 3 games means nothing. How to tell the difference in one glance.

Inside the product · 5 min

How 639 games get to your phone every Monday

The weekly robot, the fail-loud rule, and the round-numbering bug that nearly shipped.

Research method · 7 min

Wet weather splits: when rain actually moves a line

Which stats sink in the wet, which don't care, and why the MCG's roof question matters.

Inside the product · 3 min

Why you'll never see odds on ProjectPunt

The licensing maths, the incentive problem, and the five-second text box that deletes both.

Research method · 5 min

Reading a hit rate like a professional

Hit rate vs implied chance vs edge — the three-number frame behind every decision on the site.